A war that's settled into a slow grind. Frozen isn't the same as safe.
It's a full-on war in Europe, the biggest since World War II. Russia invaded to pull Ukraine back into its orbit, Ukraine fought back with Western weapons and money, and now it's a brutal slog where the front barely moves.
It goes back to Ukraine being stuck between Russia and the West, Russia grabbing Crimea in 2014, and a war in the east that simmered for years before the full invasion in 2022.
Right now the front's basically stuck and it's down to who runs out of men, money and patience first. Western aid politics is shaping things as much as the fighting.
The result decides whether borders in Europe can be redrawn by force, and every country watching is taking notes.
I lean Russia on this one, and again it's mutual. Russia has stood with India for decades, weapons, energy, backing us at the UN when the West wouldn't. India kept buying Russian oil through all the pressure and I think that was the right call. I'm not cheering the war, but when it comes to who's actually been a friend to India, Russia has the longer record.
Attrition wars are dangerous because they look calm. The real risk isn't a collapse on the battlefield, it's Western support quietly drying up and handing Russia a win the fighting never gave it.