Middle East

Israel & the Levant

The one that sets off everything else in the Middle East. Until it ends properly, the whole region stays on edge.

81Critical/ 100
What it is

It comes down to two peoples wanting the same land, and decades of war over it. What makes it a flashpoint and not just an old argument is that almost every other Middle East problem is wired back into it.

How it got here

Israel was created in 1948 and fought wars with its neighbours in 1948, 1967 and 1973 that drew today's lines. Peace talks in the 90s promised two states and never delivered. Since then both sides have only dug in.

Timeline
Where it stands now

Right now it's at the top of the scale. Fighting's still on, ceasefires keep breaking, and the real worry is it pulling in Lebanon and Iran rather than the day-to-day front.

The stakes

This is the one most likely to drag in big outside powers and blow up the whole region. Oil, shipping and every Gulf country move with it.

Where I stand
On Israel's side

I'm with Israel here, and the reason is simple, geopolitics is mutual. Israel backs India, shares tech and intel with us, and has stood by us when it mattered. It's also a tiny country surrounded by people who've openly wanted it gone, so it has every right to defend itself and build up its own security. The one line I won't cross is cheering civilian deaths or kids getting killed, by anyone. And on Palestine, let's be honest, India backed the Palestinian cause for years and what did we get back? Their support for Pakistan on Kashmir. So I've got no sympathy to spare there. India's friends are my friends.

My take

I read this as the master switch. Cool this down and half the other Middle East entries cool with it. Leave it open and they all stay hot. Problem is, a real fix needs a political deal nobody in charge looks ready to make.